A brief Sunday morning muse that could have been a Twitter thread, but as a general rule, I’m not one for Twitter threads. News that the government is planning further restrictions on gambling adverts in football has got me thinking, see …

I have no issue with curbing the ubiquitous presence of gambling companies within the sport – although I will save thorough dissection of personal responsibility in an increasingly-authoritarian world when I have more time to do the subject justice.

But with the tobacco, alcohol, and gambling industries’ relationships with football all targeted by state intervention, I do wonder how arguably the biggest vice has escaped censure – that of the football clubs themselves.

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Lockdown has been challenging for everyone, especially watching Wimbledon from afar – at our new ground – and logging on to iFollow in the hope that your connection is strong enough to cope. Of course, sometimes we probably hope it isn’t so that we don’t have to sit on the edge of our seats hoping for a goal.

I don’t normally do blogs as my written English isn’t always great as the school teachers and journalists will vouch for on our WhatsApp group. I will apologise in advance for any dodgy grammar, yet this is me and why I love doing live podcasts as anything can be said and it’s out there for everyone to enjoy.

Following our goalless draw on Saturday at Bristol Rovers, I didn’t have long to wait until the next game. Thirteen games left before the Wigan game and four of those at home against teams around us. This was the chance to complete a league double after our 3-2 win at Wigan in February which was Robbo’s first game as Head Coach. We have further opportunities of league doubles against Rochdale, Swindon and Fleetwood. We still haven’t played Ipswich yet, so that is also a possibility. Interestingly, League One leaders Hull are the only team to have done the double over us this season.

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You may recognise that as Uhtred’s – Son of Uhtred – catchphrase from ‘The Last Kingdom,’ the third season of which I just happen to be watching now (think a Viking Wagstaff with his magnificent beard). It seems now prescient on the last 10 games since our last review of what history has shown us . . .

In our last article showing us how the past might show us what was going to happen, we showed that historically over the last 10 seasons, the average number of points required to avoid relegation was 49.

Looking at past results, with 10 games to go, it suggested we’d accumulate another 13 points (nine at home; four away) and finish on 46 points, below this threshold.

In reality, we got eight points at home but a massive nine points away. And that is why we are still in League One – our away form again came to our rescue.

Looking in detail at those games, the bonus of our unexpected home win against Peterborough was undone by our loss to Gillingham. However, for the other games everything went as expected: draws with Accrington and Bristol Rovers, and a win against Wycombe.

Away from home though, the win against Southend was not expected as we were meant to draw. Scunthorpe was also a given win but all of Oxford, Luton AND Bradford were expected to see us lose. So it is fair to say that drawing all those games – though not good for the nerves at the time – were ultimately the games that did get us across the line – with some help, it has to be said, from Accrington Stanley: by missing that penalty at Kinsgsmeadow, and then by thumping Plymouth 5-1.

So now we await the beginning of our fourth year in League One, with New Plough Lane, or NPL – is anyone ever now going to NOT call it that? – a year closer to being christened with League One football.

But what has happened before – say in the last five years – with teams that flirted so dangerously with relegation in the past?

Of the 21 clubs that have been in the next bottom six, 16 have been relegated. Only Gillingham, Coventry, Shrewsbury, Fleetwood, and ourselves have survived. Of those, only Gillingham have survived where they have had two consecutive seasons in this bottom six. All others have managed either to stay out of there or, if they have appeared twice, it has not been consecutive seasons.

So there is some hope there that our two consecutive seasons may not lead to a third, although Gillingham have managed to be in this position the most: 50 per cent of the time, in fact.

But it shows more than ever how a good start to next season is required to break this trend. Remaining unbeaten at the end of this season is worth psychologically a foot up for next, but we then need to start running on gas. We will see if this materialises!

// Jim Potter – @JamPot44

So, on the back of the first home win in 2019, the simple question is: can we survive in League 1? How does our predictive, history-led analysis predict going forward? Considering how we’ve not managed to hit these results through the season, does it even give us hope, or despair?

Our last look at this analysis followed our home win against Plymouth on Boxing Day; in the league it’s been a long wait for the next one, arriving this weekend against Doncaster. That marks the 10 games to go point in the season which symmetrically counterpoints the ‘see where we are after 10 games into the season.’

Before we look to the near future, we need to see what has happened since the last update. At 24 games played, we had 21 pts (0.875 pts per game); 52% of the games had been played and we had achieved just 32% of our potential (66pts) and only 40% of our survival target (53 pts).

Now we have 33 points from 36 games (0.92 pts per game); 78% of the games have now gone and we have achieved just 50% of our potential haul and 62% of our survival target. So what lies behind these headline figures?

Well, mainly – if you had not noticed – we are pretty awful at home. At the beginning of the season we expected to get 45 of the season’s predicted 66 points at home (68%); currently we have achieved 33%. When you look at the results, expected home wins against Barnsley, Blackpool, Burton, Charlton, and Fleetwood just did not happen. In fact the Doncaster result was the only spot on prediction to occur – win and score.

Away from home the results have kept us in the game so to speak. Of the expected 21 points for the season we have already achieved 18, but even here most of the results went as expected, bar Walsall where we won, when we expected to lose (God they must hate playing us at their place!)

Click here for the full breakdown of expected and actual points.

In the last article I did say, a point per game is not guarantee of survival. However, one feature of this league this season has been how everyone seems to almost beat anyone else (except Luton and Barnsley). The fact that we were 10pts off safety, but now 10pts off the team in 13th in the league shows the compaction that has occured over the last 2 months. That gives us a bit of hope.

Reviewing the last 10 seasons in League 1, we find that the average number of points required to be 5th from bottom is 49, with a spread between 51 and 44 (2012). So actually that target of 53 appears almost generous. Add into that a change in our fortunes since NA left: at home we averaged 0.4 pts per game and away 0.88; with W&G we are up to 1.22 at home and 1.1 away (not that it seems that at home – and thanks to Secret Agent on WUP for those figures)

But given the genesis of this series of articles, what is the prediction based on history telling us?

Well for the final 10 games at home we SHOULD achieve 9 points; away from home we SHOULD get 4. If we do we will have 46 points, so will be most likely relegated! (note the pts spread above?)

But… and it’s a big but: if things go to plan. So far there has been nothing to show that we will achieve anything like our predicted results and going into the last few days, perhaps the twist to come is that we will again not hit our predicted targets: we may miss them, we may exceed them as we now have a different team mentality.

And look who and what happens in the last game …

Whatever happens in these last 10 games, we have this season been punching below our historical weight. And that will make some doom-mongers happy, but give us I suppose, an excuse to swallow and take forward as a form of acceptance as we go into League 2.

// Jim Potter – @JamPot44

So, it wasn’t meant to be like this, was it? How does our predictive, history-led analysis stack up against reality? And given our current predicament, is there any hope left for the season?

Co-incidence is a strange animal. It creeps up on you when you least expect it; but expect it you should because it’s really history (in the game). Think, really… first game in the New Year is Fleetwood and who’s still in the Cup? Yep, a nailed on certainty (why didn’t I hit the bookies then?)

Likewise , in our last analysis, it was just after we played Plymouth away so it is that this analysis follows Plymouth at home. So more than half the season gone, Neal Ardley’s gone, Neil Cox is gone and the club feels ripe for change and perhaps change is both a-coming and required. We’ll see.

And change on the pitch has very much been what we have needed. With first Simon B/Stephen Reid in charge, a touch of stability ensued and gradually things are appearing to get better. But how does this relate to our table of predictive results?

Less we not remember, as mentioned numerous times previously, a point per game is not guarantee of survival. So played 24 with 21 points we are behind, and if the oft mentioned 53 point safety line is anything of note, we feel an awfully long way away from it at present!

So how have things shaped up since last time? Perhaps, not surprisingly, our inability to get our expected result in 75% of these games shows why we are hurting. Indeed, the expected home wins against Portsmouth, Luton and Shrewsbury have probably done the most damage. Whilst our away form has prevented us picking up the odd point we expected – like at Plymouth, Doncaster and even Charlton – losing at Peterborough where we expected to win, didn’t help too!

Click here for the full breakdown of expected and actual points.

The specks of light at the end of the tunnel have been the expected win, exactly as score predicted, at Wycombe and the first ‘bonus’ win against Southend which we were expected to lose. But the most significant win perhaps will still turn out to be that at home to Plymouth, converting an expected 1-2 loss into a 2-1 win.

However, there is no doubt that we are still very much up against it; we have accumulated just 40% of the safety net value of 53 pts after passing half way in games. The question to be answered is, can we gain enough points to survive?

Whatever the reality becomes, looking at the remaining games left and the expected results we still have a good potential to be safe as we are down to win 27pts at home and 12 away; that gives us a grand total of 60pts!

Fantasy? Maybe. But the analysis is supporting this fact. Given the teams we have played so far, we were perhaps expected to do poorer in the first half of the season; the initial analysis back in August doesn’t take account of that, just the end of season position. So if we can make KM a fortress, as WAG hope we can, we certainly appear to have a chance; then we just need 3pts away.

With a target of 53 points, our margin of safety is just 7pts which is 3 game results and a relatively fine margin. But it was always going to be that fine a margin by the end of the season.

These statistics do at least give us a modicum of hope of maintaining paradise …

// Jim Potter – @JamPot44

So, 12 games in – reasonably past that ‘give them 10 games to bed in phase’ – and and how do we stand? Okay, only 20th in the table with 11 points. But how does that compare to what we expected, given past results, and how does it appear compared to last season’s torture?

The first thing I have to say about this season is that at times, from a personal viewpoint, we’ve been an absolute joy to watch. Okay, the missing of open goals; the poor conversion rate of chances to goals; and the bad luck of deflections, refereeing decisions and mental aberrations at times have been frustrating. But I now go only to KM fearing we might not win.

However, this is a results business and if you don’t produce them then you can be out. And after another surrender to a team below us – one with allegedly a number of first teamers out and no wins at home this season – there is a certain déjà vu feeling again this season.

So, updating our chart where should we have been in terms of points gained, and where are we actually. What went to plan and what did not? Here goes …

Before the start of the season, we were expected to have accumulated (surprisingly) only nine points, and so far we have got 11, so we’re ahead of the game. Of course, the actual games and league position are a reflection of the teams around us now, so although it feels like a ‘win’ there in terms of extra points already gained, in truth, given the sides around us and the performances, it seems more like a loss; bit like you felt after the Oxford win, not feeling the three points.

Looking at the results as they occurred this season it has very much felt like one foot forward, maybe two steps back. The win at Fleetwood was not expected but the draw at home to Coventry was. But then we conspired to lose at home to Walsall instead of drawing, which balanced out in part the Fleetwood win and that was then compounded by the Sunderland loss (how we did I am still trying to work out). I am very circumspect with these games against teams we have not played before; but I have not better proxy than assuming a 1-0 win at home and the same for them away.

The Burton loss was expected, but not by so many goals, whereas the Gillingham win was also one we expected to see. Scunthorpe at home should have been a draw and in many respects is symptomatic of our play and results so far this season: close but no cigar. The win against Oxford is still not one we can guarantee on past performance as our record against them over time has been so bad; but it has been better more recently so perhaps the win was more expected (if performance was not). Games where results differed from projections are highlighted yellow.

Tying things up with Bradford and Plymouth these were both games were we really expected to get something from each: Bradford should have been a win and Plymouth a draw.

So the two-point difference probably exists because of that scraped win against Oxford, but in all was that enough? A number of people required, if not expected, seven points from Oxford, Bradford and Plymouth: are we perhaps in a slow decline? We will see.

So last year we also had (albeit against different teams) nine points from our first 12 games and sat 21st in the table. Today, we are on 11 points and lie 20th, on poorer goal difference (-9 compared to -7).

Anyway, to the future and the fear already rising: Portsmouth (h), Blackpool (a), Bristol Rovers (a), Luton (h), and Shrewsbury (h). Some are seeing no points from them and when you look at them all you can see why: Portsmouth top of table and smarting from home defeat by Gillingham; Blackpool unbeaten in nine; never got anything from Rovers; and Luton and Shrewsbury seem to be random games that go either way in different seasons. But what do the stats say?

Well, specifically, Portsmouth should be a win, and Blackpool a loss like Rovers will also be. Luton gets us back on a winning track, which we complete with another win against Shrewsbury, so I make that nine points out of 15? I think we would all settle for that and I guess we really do not care how or where those points actually come from in the end, just as long as we get them. If not? Yikes!

We’ll see how it all panned out in the next update around the end of the calendar year.

// Jim Potter – @JamPot44

In 1957, Delmer Daves directed a film called 3:10 to Yuma. It was, for all intents and purposes, a fantastic film with grit, thrilling sequences and it helped push the boundaries of what cinema goers could expect in a western film.

In 2007 the film was remade by James Mangold and, taking cinema goers expectations to one side, it was a perfectly exciting remake. It contained a bit more gore, thrills and spills, and fluidity.

You see, the development of cinematic skills: digital editing, special effects and direction of camerawork made it easily possible to polish the already excellent screenplay into something slightly more. A more enjoyable production of a previous incarnation. As a fan of 3:10 to Yuma I now hope that they don’t create another film that will go backwards. And the same can be said about Wimbledon on Saturday.

This season’s AFC Wimbledon, as proven by most of the matches this season, has provided the supporters and fans of the club with an improved version of the football on show. The remake of 3:10 to Yuma, if you will. However, the end product was still the same as the previous installment. The results aren’t going our way, the important choices by personnel aren’t quite coming to fruition. The whole change of cast and production side of the football club can’t seem to correct one missing piece of the puzzle to make the fans walk away saying, “Wow, now that is something I want to see again.”

Saturday’s performance for the first 45 minutes (if you don’t include the long delay due to the injury sustained by Borthwick-Jackson) was like watching last season’s Wimbledon. And the atmosphere within Kingsmeadow was a carbon copy of last season. We all witnessed how all the players on the pitch were doing a fantastic job of replicating the players of last season. But the second half, bar the defensive lapse which let them score their third and final goal, was the newer version: more intensity, pulsating attacking play and inventiveness near to the final third. It did seem a little black and white, in parts, though.

As much as I love both versions of 3:10 to Yuma, I will always prefer watching the 2007 version of the film. The same goes for 2017/18 Wimbledon and 2018/19 Wimbledon. As much as I love the club and always will, I would still prefer to watch the 2018/19 Wimbledon above the 2017/18 version. The only worry is that actually, the 2018/19 version, come the end of the season, will turn out to be a carbon copy. Or even worse: a more expensive version of a replication with no improvements to the making of the team. Maybe it is time to get a new editor or art director? In footballing terms: a new coach, in some way or another.

// Mark Hendrikx – @MarkatCIFF

After a well-earned rest from the stresses of last season, we are now just a few short days away from our first fixture of 2018/19, away at Fleetwood. So, I’ve crunched the numbers, and this is how history suggests we will fare against our 23 League One rivals this year.

The first thing of note is that we are playing 23 clubs this season – not 22 and an abbreviation.

Moving on from that, we can see from this table that, theoretically, we should have a pretty decent season. We are expected to achieve 45 points at home and 21 away, giving us an overall total of 66 points that would have put us, comfortably, in eighth place last year.

Last season, on the basis of the teams we were to play, we were scheduled to accumulate 64 points, but we only achieved 53 – 83 per cent of our projected total.

So why should we have confidence in these stats that this season might be better? Well, it’s the averaging process. Simply put, one bad season should be offset by a good one. Overall, we are pretty average since we got into the league: in fact, over the longest term, our average does come out at around 15 wins, 16 draws, and 15 defeats – a season total of 61 points. So you can see we are owed a bit in terms of getting the average back on track! Of course, that promotion season helped …

In terms of individual games, not a lot has changed for those teams we play this year compared to last. Even good results, like the 4-0 at Bradford, do not counter what has gone before too much; history still says we should lose that one but by a smaller amount!

The uplift in fortunes this season compared to last lies in the teams promoted and relegated. Will we face two teams this year that we have not played before in the league as AFC Wimbledon: Barnsley, and Sunderland. As it happens, we play them both in the first month!

As usual with these ‘new’ opponents, I have assumed a 1-0 win at home and a 1-0 defeat away. In some respects, these might be the most interesting games of the season, stat-wise.

So we start with:

• Fleetwood, which should be a loss;
• Coventry, a draw;
• Barnsley, a loss;
• Walsall: draw;
• and Sunderland, which goes down as a win.

If that pans out as predicted, we’ll pick-up five points from five games – only a point a game and not good enough over the full season at that rate. Sort it out, Ardley!!

We will see though, won’t we? And hopefully I will be checking our progress with updates during the season, if the podcast team lets me …

// Jim Potter – @JamPot44