So, it wasn’t meant to be like this, was it? How does our predictive, history-led analysis stack up against reality? And given our current predicament, is there any hope left for the season?
Co-incidence is a strange animal. It creeps up on you when you least expect it; but expect it you should because it’s really history (in the game). Think, really… first game in the New Year is Fleetwood and who’s still in the Cup? Yep, a nailed on certainty (why didn’t I hit the bookies then?)
Likewise , in our last analysis, it was just after we played Plymouth away so it is that this analysis follows Plymouth at home. So more than half the season gone, Neal Ardley’s gone, Neil Cox is gone and the club feels ripe for change and perhaps change is both a-coming and required. We’ll see.
And change on the pitch has very much been what we have needed. With first Simon B/Stephen Reid in charge, a touch of stability ensued and gradually things are appearing to get better. But how does this relate to our table of predictive results?
Less we not remember, as mentioned numerous times previously, a point per game is not guarantee of survival. So played 24 with 21 points we are behind, and if the oft mentioned 53 point safety line is anything of note, we feel an awfully long way away from it at present!
So how have things shaped up since last time? Perhaps, not surprisingly, our inability to get our expected result in 75% of these games shows why we are hurting. Indeed, the expected home wins against Portsmouth, Luton and Shrewsbury have probably done the most damage. Whilst our away form has prevented us picking up the odd point we expected – like at Plymouth, Doncaster and even Charlton – losing at Peterborough where we expected to win, didn’t help too!
The specks of light at the end of the tunnel have been the expected win, exactly as score predicted, at Wycombe and the first ‘bonus’ win against Southend which we were expected to lose. But the most significant win perhaps will still turn out to be that at home to Plymouth, converting an expected 1-2 loss into a 2-1 win.
However, there is no doubt that we are still very much up against it; we have accumulated just 40% of the safety net value of 53 pts after passing half way in games. The question to be answered is, can we gain enough points to survive?
Whatever the reality becomes, looking at the remaining games left and the expected results we still have a good potential to be safe as we are down to win 27pts at home and 12 away; that gives us a grand total of 60pts!
Fantasy? Maybe. But the analysis is supporting this fact. Given the teams we have played so far, we were perhaps expected to do poorer in the first half of the season; the initial analysis back in August doesn’t take account of that, just the end of season position. So if we can make KM a fortress, as WAG hope we can, we certainly appear to have a chance; then we just need 3pts away.
With a target of 53 points, our margin of safety is just 7pts which is 3 game results and a relatively fine margin. But it was always going to be that fine a margin by the end of the season.
These statistics do at least give us a modicum of hope of maintaining paradise …
// Jim Potter – @JamPot44